The pressure of oversupply continues to increase. The coal transportation pattern and competition pattern will continue to be adjusted and optimized. The coal industry is accelerating the transition from “element-driven” to “innovation-driven”.
Under the influence of various factors such as uncertain economic situation, oversupply of total supply, undiminished import scale, and sluggish downstream demand, the author expects that the coal industry next year will present “limited growth, price pressure, structural adjustment, and innovation-driven”. The major feature is that coal prices are expected to enter a declining cycle, and the market supply pattern, consumption pattern, transportation pattern and competition pattern will change significantly. The market will enter a remodeling adjustment window period of about one year, with product quality advantages, price advantages and location. Advantaged coal enterprises will usher in new opportunities for development under the reshaping of the market.
First, there is limited room for growth in total coal consumption. The macroeconomic slowdown in 2020 is basically a foregone conclusion. In addition, in the domestic economic growth shift and industrial optimization, energy demand growth and energy consumption intensity will further decline, and the total demand next year is unlikely to increase. In addition, thermal power is increasingly affected by alternative energy sources such as water, wind, light, and nuclear power. The average number of hours of thermal power generation equipment continues to decline, the problem of unstable coal demand is prominent, and the total demand will decline in the future. The construction, construction materials, and metallurgical industries are subject to policy adjustments, environmental constraints, contraction of infrastructure investment, and peak production shutdowns. The prospects for coal demand are not optimistic, but relatively stable development will be maintained in the short to medium term, and non-electric coal is expected to increase. space.
The second is the increasing pressure on oversupply. The pressure on the domestic coal supply surplus since 2018 has always existed. In 2019, due to production stoppages and production restrictions, the excess supply has gradually eased, but the lower than expected summer consumption still caused the current social inventory to remain high. It is estimated that in 2020, domestic coal production plus imports will be around 4.05 billion tons, and oversupply is expected to be around 150 million tons, which will accelerate the transition of the coal market to the buyer's market. Coupled with the cancellation of the coal-electricity price linkage mechanism from next year, thermal power companies have a very strong demand for lowering the price of thermal coal. It is expected that after entering the off-season next year, coal prices will face greater adjustment pressure.
Third, the coal transportation pattern and competition pattern will continue to be adjusted and optimized. Since the implementation of the "transit to railway" and incremental freight operations, the core region's ability to maintain supply across regions and long distances has been strengthened, and the large transportation network of "western coal transportation to the east, north coal transportation to the south, public railway, and molten iron transport" has been continuously improved. At the same time, it is also forcing coal companies to upgrade the capacity of storage and shipping systems in the mining area and further transform into a railway-dominated coal supply chain. After the operation of the Haoji Railway, it will improve the north-south coal transportation capacity of northern Shaanxi. In addition to ensuring a stable supply of coal in central China, it can also form a healthy competition with "Haijinjiang" coal, which will affect the southwest and east China regions. A large number of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi coals competed directly with the "Haijingjiang" coals via the Haoji Railway to the south, or the market's right to speak in this region was tilted towards users. Affected by the increase in the amount of transfers, it is expected that coal prices in northern Shaanxi may remain relatively firm, and the inversion of prices in production and consumption areas may become the norm.
Fourth, the coal industry is accelerating the transition from "element-driven" to "innovation-driven". From the perspective of production, after recent supply-side structural reforms, China has completed the “13th Five-Year Plan” to reduce its production capacity ahead of schedule, accelerated the release of advanced production capacity and concentrated it in the “Three West” regions. Large coal companies have already fully promoted digital With the capacity and power of intelligent mine construction, high-quality coal supply will enter a new stage of development. From the perspective of circulation, it is a general trend to accelerate the integration of coal marketing and information technology. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the new generation of information technology represented by artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, 5G communications, big data, and blockchain will accelerate The breakthrough application will give coal circulation enterprises a faster and more comprehensive ability to control and use data and information resources. The next few years will be a key period for coal circulation enterprises to grasp the Internet opportunities and continue to spawn new forms and models of coal supply chains.
